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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Mixed Messages

SI's Jon Heyman has tweeted that the Royals will join the Mariners as bidders for the service of Jarrod Washburn. Washburn has been a pretty steady performer over his 12 years in the Majors. He is 35 years old and coming off of an okay season (with the exception of the 8 games he started for the Tigers). For the right price, Washburn wouldn't be a bad addition at all, but why add him at this point?

I know: Meche's injury potential appears high and the Royals don't have a lefty in the rotation. THE ROYALS DO NOT NEED A LEFTY. Teams have won championships without them, but we don't even need to go down that line of logic because the Royals will not compete this year. Furthermore, the signing of Washburn would send a mixed message to fans and the youth of this team. The young pitchers on this team need to step up, they need to deliver and if they can't...then we need to draft more and more and more pitching. Signing another aging veteran does nothing but continue the pattern this team has followed at the Major League level for too long: signing leftovers and throwing together a Major League team so they can sell some tickets. I don't know about you, but I would rather watch young guys lose than aging veterans. I mean, at least the young guys MIGHT get better.

Monday, March 29, 2010

All we are Saying...is Give Youth a Chance

The Royals might lose 100 games this year, they might lose 90...who knows. No matter what, this team doesn't need to worry about a championship run this season. With that thought firmly planted in their minds, top club officials need to consider playing the youth of this ball club instead of aging players. I am willing to be somewhat reasonable with this, Dayton. It doesn't appear that Bryan Pena is ready to spend a season as the team's backstop, Noel Arguelles doesn't need to be rushed into the rotation, and Edgar Osuna isn't quite ready to be a member of the starting five either. However, there are some younger players that deserve a shot at regular duty.

Baseball is too frequently a game of numbers and I am not necessarily referring to statistics. The higher paid players, with guaranteed contracts, are always going to get stronger considerations for regular roles. I understand that, get it, got it...DON'T CARE. Jose Guillen is going to make around $12 million this season whether he is playing as a regular DH for the Royals or feeding the chickens on his farm back home! He has had a decent spring, and he will likely play hard in an attempt to secure a free agent contract this off-season. The problem is that the Royals have some young guys who have earned a shot at Guillen's job, and I would rather see them play.

Mitch Maier, Kila Ka'aihue and Brain Anderson have all had a tremendous Spring Training.  It is unlikely that any of them will see regular playing time with the Royals in 2010. The team has logjams in the outfield, first-base and at designated hitter. With the exception of Butler (and therefore first-base), the current projected starters in logjam positions are between 30-34 years old (Dejesus, Ankiel, Guillen, and Podsednik). The ages of Maier, Ka'aihue and Anderson are: 27, 25 and 28 respectively. So, the starters aren't young and Maier, Ka-aihue and Anderson aren't exactly fresh off the farm system bus. However, it is time for the Royals to stop slapping together an aging free-agent leftover team and start playing what they have been investing in (I understand the Anderson isn't a product of the Royals, but he was signed cheap...he has played hard...and he deserves a look).

I am not delusional, I know that these guys aren't going to make the Royals any better this season. BUT! I would simply rather watch these guys play. They are all younger, haven't really "made it" to the Majors yet and they are still hungry. It would be more entertaining to watch the three of them struggle or succeed, than watch another game of: Guillen attempt to hit everything out of the park, Ankiel work on a "comeback", and Pods attempt to prove he is not "washed up".

My opinions are my own and they are likely not shared by Dayton Moore. So, anticipate another season of Hillman falling in love with players that wouldn't have a regular role on other teams. Bloomquist and Hillman likely exchange Valetines with each other...and I don't think anyone can break that bond. In other words, Willie will see way too many at bats this year. Guillen makes a lot of money (on this team) and he will likely have an improved year (if he is healthy), so the Royals are going to see what he can do. Ankiel and Pods are the "defensive upgrades" and so their roles will likely remain. The Royals didn't get to where they are by making the right moves, and the moves they are making at the Major League level haven't changed...so why should we expect anything different?

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Edgar Osuna

The Royals have some roster decisions to make with the close of Spring Training fast approaching. Given the success of Rule 5 Draft pick Joakim Soria, the Royals not having many Major League lefty options, and the question marks surrounding the bullpen and the healthiness of Gil Meche... it seems close attention will be paid to Edgar Osuna. Like many Dayton Moore additions,Osuna is from Atlanta. He was Kansas City's most recent Rule 5 pick and has shown SOME promise in his minor league career. His minor league work isn't overwhelming, but there are indications that he could pitch at the Major League level with some success.

Edgar has a few more outings left before the Royals have to make a decision involving one of three choices: 1) Keep him on the Major League roster 2) Work out a trade with the Braves to keep him in the minors in Kansas City or 3) Send him back to the Braves. Given the circumstances and the promise he has shown in the minors, Kansas City will certainly keep him around. The question then becomes...in what capacity?

Frankly, I can't see Osuna as a "lefty specialist" or as a setup man. Furthermore, the Royals have needs that aren't clearly satisfied: a 5th starter AND a left handed starter, at that ,wouldn't hurt. Osuna isn't going to amaze anyone at this point. He will likely struggle, but he won't have to be "thrown to the lions" right away. John Thompson COULD fill in as a starter for a bit, leaving Greinke, Davies, Bannister, and Hochevar (no particular order here) to complete the rotation until the "Meche scare" is better determined. Maybe Osuna could work as a long reliever...the Royals could see if he improves...AND they will have traded nothing away to get a better look at what he can do.

I think the Royals might like what they see. He has only pitched six innings this spring, and it wasn't pretty...giving up 6 hits, 6 earned runs, 1 homerun, and 4 Ks to 2 BBs. Now wait, don't give up on this kid just yet...we need a larger body of work to really see what he can do.

Osuna spent two years in Rookie ball, one year in A ball, and last season was split between A+ and AA. Compiling all those stats is probably slightly misleading, but I am about to do it anyway...largely because it shows he has some upside worth looking into. Skeptics are going to argue that most of his numbers have gotten worse with every Minor League promotion. I will counter three points to consider:
1) Osuna is young, he has likely not reached his peak
2) His ERA has remained respectable at every level
3) See the following:

What a player does in the Minors might not mean a whole lot, but with Osuna...it is the largest piece of work we have to examine. So, let's compare three current Kansas City pitchers and their Minor League stats (conveniently, they all have four seasons in the Minors). Now, I am not attempting to project Osuna to be either one of the other two pitchers, all this exercise does is puts Osuna's performance in perspective and assures us that players can get better or worse.

Player:          Greinke          Osuna          Hochevar
ERA:            2.96               3.37             3.63        
WHIP:          1.057            1.218           1.257
H/9:              7.8                 9.0               8.6
HR/9:            0.8                0.6               1.1
BB/9:            1.7                2.0               2.7
K/9:              7.5                8.3               8.3
SO/BB:         4.41              4.15             3.03


Osuna almost fits perfectly between the two pitchers. What does this mean? Well...maybe nothing, but the other two pitchers have seen success in the Majors. Keeping Osuna on the club would then seem consistent with history and justifiable. Look for Osuna to make the cut and potentially make a positive contribution this season.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Dear Dayton Moore

DAYTON:

Please do not beat yourself up over the Yuniesky Betancourt trade. The fans will mostly forget about it, especially if you remedy the ramifications quickly. You were short on infield help, Betancourt was VERY available and you took the bait. It will all be okay. We all make mistakes, and you...you will continue to make mistakes. Here's the good news, as long as you learn from them, we will not crucify you over them.

The Royals have put together a motto or a slogan over the past few seasons. "Believe" is the one that most readily comes to mind. I was thinking for this upcoming season you might consider "Betancourt to the Bench". I know that it is a little wordy, and doesn't have the same appeal as "Believe", but I think fans will appreciate the meaning and action behind it.

For a moment (and just a moment), let's forget about the offensive and defensive NUMBERS Betancourt has put up over the past few seasons and just remember he hasn't been that hot. Keeping that in mind, let's examine his Spring Training efforts as he is allegedly working on being more consistent. Offensively, without looking at the numbers (since you don't pay attention to all that "new stat stuff"), I will tell you he is better. Defensively....largely the same. In fact, did you watch the game against the Rockies on Sunday Dayton? Betancourt showed some unusual ability as he committed two errors in essentially one play. Pretty amazing. He is finding new ways to lose games for the team. Now, I know you don't like UZR and WAR (check those numbers out for Betancourt if you're bored) and all that "fancy" stuff...so, I will make it simple: Betancourt is horrible, was horrible, and will be horrible again. Cut ties, swallow your pride and help the Royals help themselves...as giving away runs usually doesn't bode well for any team.

Thank you Dayton,

Fred (Just another loyal fan, clinging to straws while the Royals sink)

Hoping for Change

 The criticisms of Dayton Moore &Co. could go on and on and on, but that isn't quite what I wanted to write about with this post. I wanted to focus on a more specific problem with Dayton Moore and hope...and HOPE that it is not an issue THIS season. In short, the Royals have three younger players in Mike Aviles, Alberto Callaspo and Mitch Maier that are working their tails off to prove they deserve starting spots on this roster. Their respective competition is somewhat abysmal in Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gordon, and the rest of the outfield (Anderson, Posednik and Ankiel).

Aviles has not yet returned to 2008 form, but his attitude, work ethic and progress thus far lead me to believe he can return to something resembling pre-injury form. I will be pulling for Mike Aviles, and not for altruistic reasons alone. I mean, I like what I have heard him say in interviews and from that and that alone...he seems like a nice enough guy and I hope he does well. The real reason, however, would be to spare the Royals the regular service of Yuniesky Betancourt (Major League Baseball's worst player). A healthy Aviles versus a healthy Betancourt... fighting for one spot...can only help the Royals.            


Callaspo (up to this point, which isn't saying much) has shown that he could be a defensive upgrade over Alex Gordon at third base. As stated in a previous post, it is not realistic to compare their fielding numbers...Callaspo only had 99.0 innings at third last year, Gordon has a lot more. There are some positive for Callaspo and negatives for Gordon that really fuel this argument, regardless. The Royals know that Callaspo can: play decent enough third to be considered for the starting role, hit for average, get on base, and not strike out a lot. The Royals know that Gordon: has been less than good at third, has yet to hit for average for an entire season, struggles to get on base, and strikes out easily. If the Alex Gordon project were made into a movie, the Royals could call it "Waiting for Gordon" and that could sum up the past three seasons. Callaspo has shown what kind of player he is: CONSISTENT. Why wait for Gordon, when Callaspo is ready?


Mitch Maier has indicated that he is following a trend that started in the minor leagues: he struggled in his first year every time he advanced a level in the farm system. His second year in A-ball was better, his second year in AA was better, second year in AAA...BETTER. This would be his second season in the Majors. His first year was below average...his Spring Training looks good...the Royals might be able to anticipate a much improved Maier this season. Maybe Maier amounts to nothing, but he should get a strong look He is out of options and he is cheap (this would be the business motivation). He is also younger and COULD be at least as good as Posednik (the 34-35 year old Posednik), Ankiel (post HGH) and Anderson (merely a big ball of potential up to this point). I don't think Maier is worth starting yet, but cutting him would be a huge mistake.


Here's to HOPE. Hoping the Royals play the players they should this year. Hoping Betancourt and Bloomquist don't see anything close to 400 at bats and hoping that the Royals wake up and utilize the young players they have.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Keep Alberto Callaspo!!

I know, I know, I know, IT IS STILL SPRING TRAINING and nothing we can see means much of anything. I think a lot of fans, and maybe the top brass were looking forward to seeing Alex Gordon show signs of being healthy and improving at the plate. Unfortunately, Alex Gordon is injured... again. Three to four weeks isn't that bad, and really he was trying to hustle and play hard...it's hard to get down a player who is giving it his all. Props to you Alex Gordon, and I sincerely hope to see you on the field soon...putting up numbers we have long been waiting to see. In the meantime, the Royals may not have a chance to screw something up.
Working for a small market team, offers a general manager multiple opportunities to worsen a franchise for the future. Because the Royals cannot put up the payroll dollars to "buy themselves better", trades, the amateur draft, and development of young talent become paramount. The Royals have had many trades (usually involving the trading away of good players) that haven't worked out as they might have hoped. This off-season and Spring Training, there have been many questions surrounding the future of Alberto Callaspo with the Kansas City Royals. Speculation has led fans to believe that they had been looking to deal the recent hitting talent who, as of late, doesn't appear to have a clear position on the team.
In 2008, the somewhat unknown Callaspo managed a .305 BA average and a .361 OBP in 231 at bats. It was the first time in his career he managed to hit over .240 with any amount of at bats. I think for most fans, it was more of a pleasant surprise than an indication of Callaspo potentially being a good hitter. Then 2009 rolled around and Callaspo saw more playing time for his positive production. In 576 at bats, he was arguably the Royals best all around hitter with a .300 BA and a .356 OBP with only 51 strikeouts. Say all you want about other offensive numbers and how other players did better here or there; what I liked about Callaspo was his plate discipline. Discipline is something the Royals have struggled with as a team for quite some time. His defense at second base, however, left a lot to be desired. The Royals then traded Mark Teahen, and in came Chris Getz and by all assessments, he should be a defensive upgrade from Callaspo. It is hard to argue with wanting the Royals to get better defensively, and if Getz does that...then he should play 2B over Callaspo. So what would the Royals do with Alberto??
 Suddenly, the Royals most disciplined hitter appeared "position-less". Getz at 2B, Betancourt/Aviles at SS, Gordon/Fields(and maybe Callaspo) at 3B and Guillen assumed the DH role. Trey HIllman insisted that he would work to find Callaspo the at bats, but it is hard to imagine Hillman's love affair with Bloomquist dying down anytime soon and I was struggling to see 400 plus at bats for Callaspo.
Spring Training started and Callaspo remained on the team, begging the question: "Is there not any interest or adequate trade options for Callaspo, or, do the Royals really want to keep this guy around?". I don't know, and it doesn't matter.The injury to Alex Gordon seemed to be enough to warrant keeping Callaspo, and it might give even the Royals enough time to realize the potential value of having him around.
I didn't really give much thought to Callaspo manning third until the return of Alex Gordon...until today (many of you probably entertained this thought before, so bear with my slow processing speed).

Why shouldn't Callaspo be the regular third baseman for the Royals??

Initially, this was just a passing thought in mind my mind. Then, of course, I had to do some digging to satisfy myself. What did I find? Well, the move might make more sense than not.

(Looks like a legit third baseman. I mean, just look at him!)

In 2009, Callaspo played some third base for the Royals to help fill in for the injured Alex Gordon. He spent a mere 99.0 innings there over 14 games. It is not an adequate enough sample to really place much value on the defensive numbers that resulted. However, he could have been downright bad for those 99.0 innings and HE WASN'T (I am not going into the details. Check them out on fangraphs.com if you like). The point is this: When compared to Alex Gordon, Callaspo seems like a pretty good option at third. Let's Compare:
                  
                                              GORDON                             CALLASPO
Age for most of 2010:                  26                                            27
Career at bats:                           1200                                         975
Career BA:                                .250                                         .286
Career OBP:                              .331                                         .341
Career SLG:                              .415                                         .404
Career OPS:                              .746                                         .746

Callaspo is not overwhelmingly better than Gordon offensively. Consider this, however. In staring Gordon, you gain whatever power he has and the potential power he might have...but, you take on his love of the strikeout. With Callaspo you lose power, but as shown with the OPS...he makes up for it and then some. Callaspo is not a strikeout kind of guy and he can hit for average (something that can be said of few players on the Royals). With so many things being equal, and Callaspo arguably having the edge...why not take the next 4-5 weeks and figure out if Callaspo could potentially be a regular at third. According to baseball history, he should be at his peak for the next three years (give or take) and his offensive numbers warrant finding him an everyday position.

Monday, March 8, 2010

The Many Looks of Hillman

I have been wanting to post this for quite some time, it is just never the right time. Other than Eric Clapton, I cannot think of another individual in the public eye who alters their appearance so dramatically, so often.
                

Royals Spring Baseball  
As usual, I'm sure that I am putting way too much thought into this...but it should be of little surprise that the lineup changes as often as it does.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Sometimes, All You Can Do is Laugh

Alex Gordon...you know what's coming next... right? He is injured, out for three to four weeks and will likely miss the season opener. When I first read the headline, I laughed out loud. Of course he is injured! He plays for the Kansas City Royals. The baseball gods have been hard on the Royals ever since the passing of their late owner, Ewing Kauffman. Bad things happen to you when you are a fan of the Royals, when you play for the Royals, when you work for the Royals, even if you merely read things about the Royals. You can suffer from a detached retina, simply because you were near the Royals.

I have worked in hospitals for years and maybe their is more connection than I ever imagined between my career choice and my favorite sports team. People come to hospitals for basically three reasons: for their birth, for their ailments and for their death. A lot of the same can be said for those who come to the Kansas City Royals. Many good players are "born" in Kansas City: David Cone (even literally born in Kansas City), Jeff Conine, Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, you get the idea and if you're a fan you are all too aware of this phenomenon. Players come to the Royals during times of "illness". These are basically times when players are coming off of sub-pars seasons, or when they are not drawing much interest from other teams (Jose Guillen fits the bill). Finally, players come here to die: Felix Jose, Chile Davis, Terry Pendleton, Greg Gagne, Gary Gaetti, Vince Coleman, Chuck Knoblauch, Mark Grudzielanek, etc. 
See full size image
(Gary is easy on the eyes)


There is always the smell of the "sick" and often times a sense of sadness you when walk the halls of a hospital. When you work there, you are constantly aware that something could go very wrong. I wonder if those same smells and feelings fill the locker room and front office of Kauffman Stadium. I wonder if Gordon's injury was even surprising to Trey Hillman and Dayton Moore. Injuries happen to every team, but doom seems to surround the Royals. 



Saturday, March 6, 2010

It All Comes Down To Pitching

Pitching is everything in baseball. With PERFECT pitching, you might not win a game...but you certainly won't lose. The Royals haven't had the type of pitching staff that attracts any sort of respect or attention in a long time. This year COULD be different. Zack Greinke is coming off of a Cy-Young winning year, Gil Meche IS healthy by all accounts, Brian Bannister is also healthy, Aaron Crow did exactly what he needed to do Saturday, Noel Arguelles has the attention of club officials, Joakim Soria is still on the roster...the Royals have some very promising pitching in there organization this year.
Overall, I don't know if Dayton Moore is the right man for the Royals. A case can certainly be made that he has done his job thus far, however. Remember what kind of pitching this team had when he arrived in the summer of 2006 (from http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/roster.php?y=2006&t=KCA):

48Jeremy Affeldt6-04185LeftLeft1979-06-06
39Steve Andrade6-01220RightRight1978-02-06
27Denny Bautista6-05170RightRight1980-08-23
58Adam Bernero6-04205RightRight1976-11-28
38Chris Booker6-03235RightRight1976-12-09
47Ryan Braun6-01215RightRight1980-07-29
50Ambiorix Burgos6-03225RightRight1984-04-19
36Jorge de la Rosa6-01190LeftLeft1981-04-05
47Elmer Dessens6-00190RightRight1971-01-13
53Jose Diaz6-00240RightRight1980-04-13
52Scott Dohmann6-01180RightRight1978-02-13
38Brandon Duckworth6-02185RightBoth1976-01-23
37Scott Elarton6-07240RightRight1976-02-23
36Seth Etherton6-01200RightRight1976-10-17
41Jimmy Gobble6-03190LeftLeft1981-07-19
23Zack Greinke6-02200RightRight1983-10-21
40Runelvys Hernandez6-01205RightRight1978-04-27
34Luke Hudson6-03195RightRight1977-05-02
22Bobby Keppel6-05205RightRight1982-06-11
54Mike MacDougal6-04195RightBoth1977-03-05
22Joe Mays6-01185RightBoth1975-12-10
55Joe Nelson6-01210RightRight1974-10-25
43Leo Nunez6-01160RightRight1983-08-14
57Joel Peralta5-11170RightRight1976-03-23
45Odalis Perez6-00225LeftLeft1977-06-11
21Mark Redman6-05220LeftLeft1974-01-05
51Andrew Sisco6-10270LeftLeft1983-01-13
39Kyle Snyder6-08220RightBoth1977-09-09
36, 63Steve Stemle6-04200RightRight1977-05-20
56Todd Wellemeyer6-03205RightRight1978-08-30
46Mike Wood6-03180RightRight1980-04-26

What remains? Zack Greinke. And remember, it wasn't an easy decision to keep Greinke that year. I think if most fans and other GMs are being honest, that cannot easily say that they would have been patient with Zack. Moore's patience paid off and then some. He is responsible for Greinke's contract extension and his patience resulted in keeping around a Cy-Young Award winner. They don't teach that stuff in GM school.
The rest of Moore's positive pitching moves are:
-Traded Tony Graffanino for Jorge de la Rosa (hey, he showed SOME flashes)
-Traded Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister (one of his best trades to date, in my opinion)
-Traded Daniel Christensen for Ramon Colon
-Traded Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies
-Traded Future Considerations for Ramon Ramirez
- Signed Gil Meche (and signed him for "too much" at the time. A somewhat ballsy move that paid off)
-Picked up Robinson Tejeda
-Drafted Joakim Soria (who?? at the time) in the Rule 5 Draft
-2007, his first Amateur Draft with the Royals, he selected pitchers Sam Runion, Daniel Duffy, and Mitch Hodge (Runion...oops. Duffy is promising, ranked as the organization's #8 prospect, and I haven't heard much about Hodge, other than he is in the Rookie league)
-2008, he drafted pitchers Mike Montgomery, Tyler Sample, Tim Melville and John Lamb (Montgomery appears to be a good prospect, maybe Sample as well).
-2009, Aaron Crow, Chris Dwyer, and Louis Coleman (Aaron Crow looks as good as you could hope for thus far, and honestly I don't know enough about Dwyer or Coleman to make an educated statement).

There have been many bad signings and trades along the way, but look at the 2010 roster of pitchers:


PitchersB/THtWtDOB
45 Noel ArguellesL/L6-322001/12/90
19 Brian BannisterR/R6-121502/28/81
56 Roman ColonR/R6-524508/13/79
43 Aaron CrowR/R6-319011/11/86
37 Juan CruzR/R6-116510/15/78
34 Kyle DaviesR/R6-121009/09/83
40 Kyle FarnsworthR/R6-423004/14/76
23 Zack GreinkeR/R6-219010/21/83
80 Gaby HernandezR/R6-321505/21/86
44 Luke HochevarR/R6-522009/15/83
31 Dusty HughesL/L5-1018506/29/82
54 Anthony LerewL/R6-422510/28/82
47 Victor MarteR/R6-225511/08/80
55 Gil MecheR/R6-322009/08/78
49 Edgar OsunaL/L6-118511/25/87
53 Carlos RosaR/R6-121009/21/84
48 Joakim SoriaR/R6-320005/18/84
51 Robinson TejedaR/R6-224503/24/82
38 Blake WoodR/R6-523008/08/85


I don't know about you, but it looks a lot better to me. The potential rotations that have been thrown out lately would be the best since Moore took over. The Royals have legitimate 1 and 2 starters now in Zack Greinke and Gil Meche...looks pretty good compared to Mark Redman and Scott Elarton. In my opinion, there is real competition for the rest of the spots in the rotation...competition is a very welcomed and foreign idea in Royals Spring Training.