Spring Training Wishlist

No stats today and nothing too intense. Spring training is clearly NOT the regular season. A lot of players use this time to work on new pitches, plate approaches, etc. Nonetheless, these are the things I would love to sense at the close of Spring Training this year (as a fan, nothing more or less):
1. Alex Gordon shows that he is healthy and capable of being a positive contributer at the Major League level.
2. Billy Butler demonstrates a slight, if not moderate, improvement playing first base.
3. Chris Getz lives up to the tiny bit of hype that has been attached to him.
4. Jose Guillen (even though I can't stand him) is healthy and plays his heart out to secure a new contract ELSEWHERE.
5. Gil Meche doesn't look like a worn down mule and is able to be a solid #2 starter.


6. Zack Greinke shows no signs of slowing down.
7. Betancourt gets lost in the Arizona desert, forcing the Royals to sign ANY OTHER SHORTSTOP available to fill his roster spot (oh dear, maybe that was too harsh).


8. Callaspo either shows that he is too valuable a hitter to be out of the lineup or gets traded for players that don't create more logjams.
9. Jason Kendall...umm...hmm...the Royals did sign him didn't they...a positive clubhouse influence perhaps?
10. Farnsworth throws a solid two-seamer and becomes a solid setup for Soria.
11. Juan Cruz becomes the other solid setup for Soria.
12. Robinson Tejeda proves to even Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman (it will take a lot) that he belongs in the rotation.
13. Luke Hochevar stops his impression of Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde, becoming the starter he was supposed to be.


14. Rick Ankiel returns to form (Shh...I am not opposed to HGH, as long as no one finds out)
15. The "Soria to the rotation?" discussion ends because the Royals have five legitimate starters (boy, is this a wishlist or what?).
16. A lead-off hitter emerges (I really don't care who) that does what lead-off hitters do: GET ON BASE!
17. Sluggerrr improves his delivery and avoids retinas this season.


18. Zack Greinke carries his Samurai sword onto the field, stabs it into the mound, and screams, "EXCALIBUR!!!!!!" at the start of every home game (think of the t-shirt sales).
19. The Royals ditch the new, ridiculous, insulting, vomit provoking powder blues for the ones of old (Cal Ripken Sr always told Jr "If you are going to do something, do it right").
20. Lastly, and most importantly, Trey Hillman gets rid of the Mullet, realizing that there can't be a "party in the back" until the Royals take care of some business up front (the funniest stuff you've heard...right?).

Could Johnny Damon Join The Ranks of Willie Mays?

Today, Johnny Damon finalized a one-year, $8 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. I usually do not take too much notice of what other teams are doing throughout the league, but former Royals making headlines always grab my attention.

("The Tigers were my first choice. I love it here and think I am a good fit." AKA my agent screwed around with other teams while trying to land a big contract for Matt Holliday)


Damon was born on an Army Base in Fort Riley, KS and in the 1992 draft, the Kansas City Royals made him the 35th player selected overall. By 1995 he was showing promise at the Major League level, batting .282 in 188 at bats. Damon stayed in the Majors from that point on, putting together an incredibly productive 15 year career thus far. 
I love looking at players, such as Damon, who have been in the league for a number of years. I like to think about what kind of statistical milestones are within their reach. I like to then "root" for them to reach the goals I have personally assigned them. This sort of day-dreaming started with the first baseball cards I can remember getting. I really didn't care what cards were inside when I was opening a newly purchased package of Topps baseball cards (I certainly didn't care about the stick of gum either. That stuff was awful)...I just wanted to look at their career stats on the back of the card. As I got older, career stats became easily accessible on the Internet and their was no longer a reason for me to buy cards. So, Johnny Damon is now approaching the end of his career and I am again thinking about the milestones a player (Damon) could reach.
Damon's career totals that are of interest to me are as follows: 2425 hits, 207 home runs, and 374 stolen bases. It's a long shot, but could Johnny Damon join Willie Mays as only the second player to have 3000 hits, 300 home runs, and 300 stolen bases? Probably not, but let's see what it would take.

(Willie Mays Hayes never played professional baseball)



(Willie Mays is in a league all his own)


Damon is currently 36 years old, not a spring chicken by any stretch of the imagination. However, Willie Mays played until he was 42, and at a high level until age 40. So how long would Damon have to play to join the "Willie Mays Club"?
Damon's career 162-game averages for hits, home runs, and stolen bases are:
-184 hits
-16 home runs
-28 stolen bases
Mays:
-178 hits
-36 home runs
-18 stolen bases
These sorts of stats are, of course, not reliable for projecting players' stats BUT they at least give us an idea of what they were doing for most seasons in their career. They are merely averages...imperfect averages. Some fans might look at the career stats of both players and notice a few things: Mays only played 34 games in 1952 and his last two seasons (72' & 73') were well below his career averages. Damon had a similar problem in that he did not play anything close to a full season in 1995. A reader might ask, "won't that have an impact on these averages?" Academically speaking...yes. In reality, no. But lets take a look just to demonstrate: Let's strike 52', 72' and 73' from May's records and 95' from Damon's and recalculate their 162 game career averages:
Damon-
-184 hits
-16 home runs
-29 stolen bases
(basically, this changes nothing for Damon)


Mays-
- 181 hits
- 37 home runs
- 19 stolen bases
(not much change for Mays either)


What remains clear is that Damon is speedier and Mays has more power. They have more similarity than difference, however.
Mays started his Major League career at age 20, Damon at age 21. Damon's career batting average is .288, Mays is .302. Damon somewhat makes us for this by averaging 639 at bats per season compared to Mays at 589. Neither one of them were big strike out victims. Mays averaged 83 a season and Damon 80. It took Willie Mays roughly 19 seasons to satisfy the 3000/300/300 mark, he was thirty-nine years old. What will Damon's career totals possibly look like after his 19th season? How about 39 nine-years of age? 
Let's take a look based on his career averages (which will NOT adequately account for his probable decline in numbers with aging, but who knows). For Damon, his nineteenth season happens to be the one in which he turns 39.


Based on his averages, Damon's career totals will be as follows after his nineteenth season: 2013 (age 39):
- 3161 hits
- 271 home runs
- I don't care about stolen bases, he already has 374


He would come up short on home runs and need over a full season to reach 300 based on this exercise. It is worth noting, however, that Damon has not had 184 or more hits since 2005 and he has shown a little more power late in his career. Let's attempt to adjust for this, and just take the 162 game averages from his last four seasons (the Yankee years) which were:
- 179 hits
- 22 home runs
Using those averages, his career totals would look like this after the 2013 season:
- 3141 hits
- 295 home runs
This puts him within five home runs of reaching the "club". It's hard to say what he would look like in his 20th season, or really any season for that matter. It does seem, however, that Johnny Damon at least has a shot at becoming only the second player in the game to reach 3000/300/300. I will be "rooting" for Johnny to pull it off (only on the days when he is not facing the Royals).

Nothing much to add here, just excited to hear Banny is doing well

Kansas City Star columnist Bob Dutton reporting

At this point, most of us would like to believe Greinke is a "shoe-in" for another good year. Hopefully, Meche comes back looking strong. A healthy and productive Bannister would give the Royals a pretty strong rotation in spots 1 through 3.

One last look at the Mark Teahen trade

At this point, Royals fans have memorized the oral history of the Carlos Beltran trade. In the most basic of terms, the team traded their biggest (and arguably only) star for: Mike Wood, John Buck, and Mark Teahen. All three of those players are no longer with the club. Mike Wood never amounted to much, John Buck had his moments and left for free agency, and then there was Mark Teahen.


He was easily the best player gained from letting go of Beltran. And what a gain it was. Though he was by no means Beltran, he played virtually every position he could during his tenure with the team (the only ones he didn't play were shortstop, catcher, and pitcher). He was at least average at anything the club asked him to do, and they asked a lot. Teahen became the poster child for "super-utility", getting comfortable with being moved from 1B,to 2B,to 3B, to LF, to RF, and CF. In all honesty, however, he was a man without a position on the Royals.
First base belonged to Billy Butler, second base to Alberto Callaspo, and the outfield to essentially David DeJesus and whoever else needed a position that day. Teahen was at his best offensively and defensively when playing third. He was relieved of those duties to make way for the sometimes promising Alex Gordon, a move that might not have been ideal in retrospect...but one I really can't blame the Royals for trying.
His numbers were up and down once his position was regularly shifted. Maybe the lack of stability got to his head, but overall his offensive production was (though down) still welcomed on a club that had little offense to begin with.
Teahen's salary was creeping up year by year...they didn't really have a position for him...they allegedly needed to make some payroll reductions...and they were hungry, as always, for more infield position players. Teahen had been linked to trade rumors before, but the rumor of him being dealt to the White Sox stuck and he was soon off to Chi-Town. In return, the Royals received a young speedy second basemen in Chris Getz and "third basemen" Josh Fields. The trade has long been final...what's done is done. So, what did the Royals get for the last piece of the Carlos Beltran trade? What did they lose? Statistics, though never perfect, are a way to separate the emotional aspect of a trade and look at the objective impact of what took place. General manager Dayton Moore has historically failed to bring in statistically better players offensively and defensively (ptichers have been hit and miss).



For the upcoming season, here is a look at the projections of various statistics for Teahen, Getz and Fields (Alex Gordon's projections are listed at the bottom, seeing as he is man who is truly "replacing" Teahen):

UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating)- what does it mean? The most simplistic way to interpret the stat is to think of it as runs a player is putting on the board DEFENSIVELY. In other words, are their efforts in the field keeping teams from scoring, or helping the opposition cross home plate.
UZR (projected) for 2010:

Teahen- -5.7
Getz- -1.1
Fields- -4.2
Gordon- +0.8
My interpretation of this data is as follows: I don't see Fields getting a lot of time at third, but I am trying to give the Royals the benefit of the doubt. So, Teahen is -5.7 and Getz/Fields is -5.3. In the end, it doesn't appear that either one of the newly acquired Royals are going to be a complete liability at their position.

Fangraphs.com has recently added wOBA to their statistic arsenal. I have read a little about the stat (probably just enough to make misuse of it) and thought we might take a look at the 2010 projections for the aforementioned threesome. What is wOBA? Essentially weighted on base average. wOBA takes the relative impact of getting on base into account. In other words, a home run is weighted around twice as much as a single. I felt that it might give us a better indicator of offensive impact than OPS.
2010 projected wOBA:

Teahen- .331
Getz- .319
Fields- .326
Gordon- .365

Again, Teahen is the better player with Fields showing some potential.

Finally, a look at WAR (Wins above replacement).
2010 projections:
Teahen- 1.4
Getz- 1.3
Fields- 0.5
Gordon- 4.1

Overall, the trade is neither good nor bad. The strangest thing to consider is that the Royals have (in a round about way) traded Carlos Beltran for Chris Getz and Josh Fields. Most importantly, it saves the Royals a little money, they have one less "man without a position" on the roster, a potentially decent second baseman in Chris Getz, and a third basemen in Alex Gordon that could still end up being a better player than Mark Teahen.

Gordon may not be a TOTAL bust

The Kansas City Royals drafted Alex Gordon with the second pick in the 2005 amateur draft. Many scouts throughout baseball felt that Gordon might have been the best talent available that year. "He was as close to a can't miss [prospect] as there could be" said one scouting official. Expectations were colossal, and initially Gordon delivered: He hit 29 home runs and stole more than 20 bases in his first full season in minor league baseball. Gordon was getting a lot of attention. He was selected to the 2006 All-Star Futures game, and was regarded as baseball's best hitting prospect. The comparisons to Royals' great George Brett began and so did the decline of Alex Gordon.

I was still living in Kansas City during Gordon's major league debut. As a life long fan of the Royals, I was understandably nervous about all the hype surrounding him. I remember all too well the fate of prospects such as: Chad Durbin, Chris George, Colt Griffin, Angel Berroa, Phil Hiat, Chris Lubanski, etc. I wanted the attention to stop. I wanted Gordon to deliver. I wanted the Royals' front office to finally be right about a draft pick, a prospect...anything. I was listening to the radio on April 2nd of 2007 as Alex Gordon stepped to the plate for his first major league at bat. He was facing Curt Schilling, and as you might know...he stuck out. While no one was likely thinking about it then, the Royals might have struck out as well. The following 2 plus years would be less than stellar for Gordon.

Gordon quickly developed into a low OBP, high strike out, mistake-pitch hitter. He showed signs of power, but a clear lack of plate discipline. Local radio implied that George Brett spent some time with Gordon, talking to him about his swing and how he needed adjust his approach. It must have fallen on deaf ears, as Gordon would spend some considerable time in the minors.

If demotions weren't bad enough, "injury was added to insult". Gordon spent much of 2009 on the disabled list following hip surgery. The fan base and those in the front office were more than frustrated with their top pick. The Royals Review has summed up Gordon's major league career as follows: 2007 was disappointment, 2008 showed promise, and 2009 was injury. So what does 2010 have in store for the one time "greatest hitting prospect in baseball"? Baseballprojection.com predicts him to hit .267/14HR/54RBI...doesn't exactly take your breath away huh? The site also has his strikeouts at 99 and his OBP at .353. Again, none of these numbers are going to have anyone itching to fill in his All-Star ballot bubble. Does this make Gordon a bust? Considering what he was advertised to be, probably so. However, a healthy Alex Gordon with above average defense and improved plate discipline could provide the Royals with a finally stable "hot corner".

Third base has been nothing short of a game of musical chairs for the Royals over the past two seasons. Manager Trey Hillman has been forced to be very "creative" in making defensive assignments and lineups. The front office attempted to address the lack of depth this offseason by obtaining: Chris Getz, Josh Fields, and a puzzling slew of outfielders in: Ankiel, Anderson, and Posednik. So, is Alex Gordon a bust in the context of super-stardom? Probably. A total bust? Well, if nothing else, a healthy and slightly improved Alex Gordon should keep Willie Bloomquist and Alberto Callaspo off of third base this season (speaking defensively of course. I would love to see them both hit as many triples as possible).

Another Spring, another pitcher full of Kool-Aid

I now live in Portland, Oregon. It's February, it's been near sixty degrees for almost ten days, the grass is green (and requiring mowing), trees are budding (many already have leaves), and daffodils and crocus have pushed through the ground to reveal spring flowers. Growing up in the Midwest, it is spring here for me.

I have been listening and reading a lot about the Royals. Their predicted lineups, the impact of their offseason moves, those who have potential for breakout seasons, and on and on. My longstanding love affair with the Kansas City Royals cycles much like the seasons here on Mother Earth.

Mid-summer is invariably extreme disappointment, anger, and frustration. Sometimes as early as June, it feels as though the Royals have dug their comfortable hole at the bottom of the A.L. Central. It reminds me of the dry and dying summers of Missouri. Don't get me wrong, there are some good things going on. It's hot enough outside to swim, play golf, picnic and barbecue, and play outdoors with the family. The same can be said for the Royals. Watching players like Greinke, Soria and Butler never gets old, but the overall feeling come July is "the Royals season is over. They are done, dead, forget about it".

Watching the Fall Classic passes and we (as fans) start to come to terms with the state of the team. Several explanations "fall" our way much like the leaves dropping off of trees: "There's a lot of talent in the minors", "The younger players are still developing", "It is difficult, if not impossible to sign top tier free agents here". The list goes on, and we accept that the Royals are still REALLY bad and it is going to take time to turn that around.

Winter sets in. We are stunned not only by the cold temps, but the moves of the front office. "Surely they are not going to sign more mediocre aging ball players to 'fill the gaps' until our 'young stars' arrive?" You bet they are, only this season the approach is a little different. Through their off-season acquisitions the Royals made it quite clear they were going to sign virtually every average outfielder available. I feel the need to make a very obvious disclaimer here: I am by no means a baseball expert, general manager, scout, or someone who even played baseball at a highly competitive level. I DO KNOW that the Royals are rarely competing with top clubs to sign free agents.

Imagine, for a moment, that free agents are food on a buffet table. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Dodgers are four fat people ahead of you (the Royals) in line. What do you get to eat? Whatever the hell is left over. That is how the off-season has gone for as long as I can remember. Occasionally, the Royals "jump-ahead" in the buffet line and "steal" all the brussels sprouts from the fat folks (advanced apologies offered to any of those who are offended). What do they think? "Who cares, we didn't want them anyways."

As mentioned before...now it is spring...hope and promise are everywhere. I look back onZack Greinke's year and the fact that he was signed to an extension. I think about the prospect of a healthy Gil Meche and Bannister and what that could mean for the rotation. I wonder if Luke Hochevar can become consistent with the promise he has shown. I think about what all that could mean and...I giggle. I remember watching Billy Butler last year. I was so happy with his development at the plate I didn't even care that he wasn't even an average first basemen. I try not to get angry that Betancourt and Farnsworth are on the roster and consuming too much payroll. I wonder if Mike Aviles could be healthy and the options that might offer the team. I pray that Guillen either plays for a contract or has a season-ending injury. I get excited about working Alberto Callaspo into the lineup. In the end, I drink the Kool-Aid. It's spring, and until June or July...I think about the Royals contending in the Central.

Dayton, tell me about Betancourt's upside again. Please?

Yuniesky Bentacourt. The name brings an undeniable and overwhelming feeling of nausea. Last year, after a slide in production and season-ending injury to Mike Aviles, Dayton Moore was able to pry Betancourt from the Seattle Mariner's "man-on-his-deathbed" grip. Seattle knew about Betancourt, baseball knew about Betancourt, hey Dayton, "Yeah. Did you get that memo?". I am still scratching my head on this one. Baseball is largely a game of numbers, and often these numbers are somewhat reliable in projecting the course of a player's career. Wins above replacement (WAR) might have been a good starting point for Moore when considering acquiring Betancourt.



(He doesn't look THAT bad from a distance)


I am not implying that numbers tell the whole story, but let's look at the top five shortstops in baseball (in order) according to the 2010 projected WAR:

-Hanley Ramirez

-Alex Rodriguez

-Troy Tulowitzki

-Ben Zobrist

-Jose Reyes

The list above is not necessarily the "who's who" of shortstops, but it is a respectable group nonetheless. I don't see Betancourt in the top 5...or the top 10...or even the top 50. No, to find Betancourt you have to look at the VERY BOTTOM of the list. He is the worst shortstop according to this assessment tool. His WAR is -1.0 compared to Hanley Ramirez (the top prediction) at 7.5.

Maybe WAR is just not a good way to look at this. I mean, Moore is a baseball man who came from a great baseball institution in the Atlanta Braves. Maybe Betancourt looks better in another category. That upside that he told fans about MUST exist in another form.

UZR measures the runs saved relative to the average fielder at a given position. Again, here are the top five shortstops projected for 2010 in that category...again, in order:

-Elvis Andrus

-Brendan Ryan

-Jack Wilson

-Paul Janis

-Ben Zobrist

A very respectable group defensively. When Moore acquired Betancourt, he was arguably in a pinch and understandibly felt the need to "get someone" to fill the shortstop void. I wouldn't expect him to be able to grab a top five...maybe middle of the road, or even a little worse. So where does Betancourt rank? 25th? 30? 45? Nope. DEAD LAST...AGAIN. Oh dear. It is often said that "the third time is the charm". Let's give Dayton Moore one last chance and maybe, just maybe, we will see this "upside" he was talking about.

Ever since coming to Kansas City, Moore has been faced with the challenge of improving an abysmal squad...offensively and defensively. Clearly, our above exercise shows that he wasn't looking for defense when he decided to bring aboard Betancourt. Maybe the upside is in his offense! This has to be it! Dayton was once regarded as one of the brightest young minds in baseball. He decided to take the GM position in Kansas City knowing that they were a small market club and would have to make VERY smart decisions given their limited payroll abilities. He must have seen something in the man's offensive numbers!

OPS is regarded as a fairly important tool is assessing a player's offensive ability/impact. It is, simply stated, a player's OBP plus slugging percentage. The top five? Well, they are a familiar group:

-Alex Rodriguez

-Hanley Ramirez

-Troy Tulowitzki

-Ben Zobrist

-Jose Reyes

BETAN-COURT!?!?!?!?!?! Where are you???????? Out of the three stats we are looking at, this is where he does the best. His OPS is projected at 0.642, putting him ahead of (only): John McDonald, Adam Everett, Cesar Izturis, and Paul Janish. Yup. He ranks 53rd.

Collectively and clearly, Dayton Moore traded for the WORST possible shortstop, if not player, in baseball. Worst of all, he added him to a team that needed the worst player in baseball as bad as they needed bats made of wet noodles.